I plan to sell all my bitcoins before the fork, here is why.
I'm a general hodler, I've kept my bitcoins in cold storage for several years but plan to move them to an exchange and trade them for one or more major altcoins. I would love some feedback on my reasoning here, it's pretty speculative.
First of why sell the coins? Most people flock to bitcoin prior to the fork, they want to cash in on the altcoins whose value has been established on the futures market. But I want to go the other way, the reason is that just prior to the fork, the value of the new coins is already priced in and the value will drop with the same amount after the fork. This is usually what happens when a stock has a planned payout, the price drops after. In the last fork we saw a total increase of the price, that was because there was a lot of risk for trouble for bitcoins first hard-fork ever and no-one knew how it would go.
A difference between bitcoin and stock is that most people tend to put their money in other alt-coins after the split, so while we see a decrease now, we will probably see an increase afterwards whenever people sell of their least favourite bitcoin flavour.
What's so bad with selling the coins? Some people might cash in, but I have no better chance of selling fast than anyone else, also I have to get up in the middle of the night. However, the most important reason is that I believe most people model the bitcoin-cash-fork on this fork, but I believe this one has a lot more risk to it. The last fork was in bad blood sure, but they were not claiming they were the original bitcoin. In this fork lot's of parties have chosen different sides, including exchanges that will most likely label the bitcoins differently. Segwit2x wants to be the only bitcoin and bitcoin core is not rolling over. This is basically an extension of the war that has been raging in bitcoin for the last year. This may cause bugs, risks of losing coins and general uncertenties, this in turn tends to affect the price negatively and push value to other coins, similair to when the scaling wars were raging.
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