I've decided to spread $4000 across 4 random coins picked by an RNG. Lets see how I do.
I'm gonna parse this by saying the folliowing, while I am a degenerate, I am not an addict. I just like to bet on sports and play Pot Limit Omaha. I'm not selling my kidneys so I can bet on the Super Bowl or anything. I also was in on cryptos pretty early and made enough money that I can make this gamble. I went all in on Ethereum around the time it was in the $10-15 range, hit it big and now I'm cashed in some of my profits to be a fucking degenerate.
I think all the people - even the well spoken ones, who profess that their coin of choice is undervalued don't really understand what their talking about. I think the entire market is a bubble but I'm willing to bet that this bubble and ride it to the moon or die trying.
Strategy: Use Random.org's RNG to generate a number from 1-50 3 times and 51-100 once to pick the fourth coin. Reason why I did this is because I'm reasonably confident that if I got 4 really high numbers, I'd end up with 4 bullshit coins and lose the entire investment. I'm gambling but I'm not looking to purposely lose money. The only coins excluded from this was Tether and any coin I already had money in (Ethereum, Factom, OMG, QRL). Buy and hold for a year. See how I do. That's it.
The coins I picked ended up being:
- Neo - I've heard of this before. Used to be Antshares. That's all I know. Bought some today.
- Ark - Yo, this coin is pretty much made for holding, I picked it up and voted for a delegate already and I'm earning Ark!
- Komodo - This is basically another privacy coin but with smart contracts right? Dunno why people wouldn't just buy Monero over this but it's probably not terrible.
- And the 4th coin was....Nav Coin. I know nothing about it, will read up on it tomorrow.
Honestly, I'm glad I didn't get some shady sounding shit on the last one. I'll be back in a year (December 1st, 2018) to update you guys on my progress.
Now as for the logic behind this (aside from pure degeneracy), I'm gonna run the RNG again using 5 coins on the Top 100 again but from December of 2016.
Here's what I got:
- Ethereum Classic - $0.78 at the time, now $32.55
- Qwark - $0.02, now $0.16
- VeriCoin - $0.025, now $0.51
- Dnotes - $0.006, now $0.014
- Ripple - $0.0065, now $0.25
If you had bet $1000 on each coin back on December 2016, your portfolio would now be worth.....$119,194.86. Now it IS possible to pick "good" coins and probably beat that return, for example if you just threw $5000 into Ethereum instead in 2016, you'd have around $300,000 now. But that's not really the point of this exercise, I just wanna see if a literal dartboard could make money here. You guys can run this game of Crypto Roulette yourselves with your own RNG if you want.
Or if you want, use an RNG from to pick 5 coins from the 2016 Top 100 and see how long it takes you to lose money.
The big risk here? Well, from 2015 to 2016, a good chunk of the Top 100 lost money. I'm basically banking on two things: The market continues to follow the general direction of Bitcoin and two, that this won't be another 2015. No shilling, no pretending I think all these coins are undervalued. Just throwing money at a board and seeing what works.
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