A proposed ELI5 set of rules to facilitate buy/sell decisions for newcomers
I have been through my learning curve in recent years, finding:
1) which cryptocoins are worth following,
2) how much to HODL how much to try to make some shorter gains on and
3) how not to make badly timed stupid decisions.
Here follows my list of tips and tricks. Use them at your own risk. Share your comments and own ideas.
General
G1) For positive news: "buy the rumor, sell the news."
G2) For negative news: "sell the rumor, buy the news."
G3) Only buy cryptocoins in the top 10 (maybe top 20) in terms of capitalization AND 24 hours circulation. Generally avoid pre-mined coins unless the creators did not retain much for themselves. (See http://ift.tt/1oKjfXP).
G4) Betting on new ICO coins when you are new around is not smart. ICO investment is for the experienced, and in any case is risking loosing part or all of your investment, quickly or after the first high weeks.
Decide
D1) How much you want to invest, that you could accept to loose in the worst case.
D2) What share of your investment you want to HODL, no matter what, and what share you want to play with with shorter trading.
D3) With your heads, not your guts and emotions. Define you buy and sell points based on the rules below and stick to it. Sometimes that may turn out bad, but generally it is better than the emotional fear or excitment-based decision.
Buy when (the more together, the stronger the signal)
B1) 15 minutes & 2 hours MACD are past bottom in the red: first red bar of a decreasing size.
B2) From Friday to Monday morning; Saturday and Sunday are generally the low points in a week.
B3) There is rumor of good news or a positive development expected.
B4) Prices are dropping to a symbolic level
B4.1) 1st time
B4.1.1) strong buy signal: value level is symbolic both in USD & EUR (e.g. 2500 USD which is +/-2200 EUR)
B4.1.2) average buy signal, less support for bounce back up: value level is symbolic in just one of USD & EUR (e.g. 2280 USD which is +/-2000 EUR)
B4.2) 2nd time
B4.2.1) average buy signal, less support for bounce back up: value level is symbolic both in USD & EUR (e.g. 2500 USD which is +/-2200 EUR)
B4.2.2) low buy signal, chances are that prices will break to lower levels: value level is symbolic in just one of USD & EUR (e.g. 2280 USD which is +/-2000 EUR)
B4.3) 3rd time or more
B4.3.1) low buy signal, low support for bounce back up: value level is symbolic both in USD & EUR (e.g. 2500 USD which is +/-2200 EUR)
B5) Technical Analysis from several sources signal that prices will increase. Not because the analysis is right, but because a number of people believe TA works => Self-fullfilling prophecy.
Sell when (the more together, the stronger the signal)
S1) 15 minutes & 2 hours MACD are just past top in the green: first green bar of a decreasing size.
S2) From Monday afternoon to Thursday; Thursday is generally the high point in a week.
S3) There is rumor of bad news or a positive development expected.
S4) When news are past and effectively implemented, and there is no big rumour or news being published. This tends to drive a drop or slow price erosion.
S5) Prices are increasing to a symbolic level
S5.1) 1st time
S5.1.1) strong sell signal: value level is symbolic both in USD & EUR (e.g. 2500 USD which is +/-2200 EUR)
S5.1.2) average sell signal, less support for bounce back down: value level is symbolic in just one of USD & EUR (e.g. 2280 USD which is +/-2000 EUR)
S5.2) 2nd time
S5.2.1) average sell signal, less support for bounce back down: value level is symbolic both in USD & EUR (e.g. 2500 USD which is +/-2200 EUR)
S5.2.2) low sell signal, chances are that prices will break to higher levels: value level is symbolic in just one of USD & EUR (e.g. 2280 USD which is +/-2000 EUR)
S5.3) 3rd time or more
S5.3.1) low buy signal, low support for bounce back down: value level is symbolic both in USD & EUR (e.g. 2500 USD which is +/-2200 EUR)
S6) Technical Analysis from several sources signal that prices will drop. Not because the analysis is right, but because a number of people believe TA works => Self-fullfilling prophecy.
[link] [comments]
Read More
