Are we in a crypto-bubble right now?
The RSI on ETH is very high right now. Here's what I think about the RSI:
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The RSI assumes relatively static/slow movements over an average period of time in comparison to the sudden breakthroughs of an active paradigm shift.
The thing is every man on the street now is starting to see the returns that ETH and DLT's offer. Compared to bonds, stocks, savings and other traditional investment vehicles the returns are astronomical and importantly the barrier to entry in terms of cost and setup is minimal which makes cryptocurrency speculative markets much more accessible.
$20 and a coinbase account is literally all you need to get started.
We are not in a bubble yet. The number of ICO projects has gone up but we've not seen a few objectively successful use cases emerge on a global level and not everyone who can onramp today has done so; if anything the high returns are fuelling demand from more risk averse potential investors.
If anything this demand is completely outstripping the ability of fiat onramps to cope. I've noticed verification times and support response times go up considerably on Kraken and Coinbase.
Now think back to the dot com era; there are lots of similarities to what's happening in crypto today; namely the very high speculative valuations on tokens that have yet to generate a single dollar of non speculative income.
That said this bubble isn't popped. Its started and the first major down movement is likely to be a correction. To quote Wikipedia on the dot-com bubble:
"After venture capital was no longer available, the operational mentality of executives and investors completely changed."
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Given the reach/scale of public non-VC capital is global and goes well beyond the traditional VC community in sheer size and since ICO's and token trading are much more accessible when onramped; we have a lot more money to play with and a lot more room to grow.
If anything we need more onramps right now.
Thus I think traditional markers such as RSI will be better served for short term bearish corrections in this overall upswing of the bull period or may need some adjustment during this period of unprecedented growth.
Given the accessibility relative to traditional VC I think 12 months should be sufficient to get the next wave of investors in. Enjoy overall significant growth in this period.
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For my general thoughts on cryptocurrency investing and trading check out my, "Intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency." If you are new to cryptocurrency trading and investing, it's well worth a read:
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Disclaimer: I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: As of posting I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Particl (PART), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP), Factom (FCT), Wetrust (TRST) and Decred (DCR).
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